GLA: Interim 2015-based population projections

Published by:
London Borough of Barnet
Last updated:
06 March 2017
Topic:
Society
Licence:
Open Government Licence

Summary

From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection.

This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set.

Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:

 

Borough

  • Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario)
  • Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario) 
  • Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario)
  • Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)

 

Small Area

  • Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model
  • MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model

 

Documentation

Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset.

Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page.

A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.

 

Notes

A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here.

These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.

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Data links

Link to the data Format File added Data preview
ward_interim_2015_base XLS 03 March 2017 Not available
msoa_interim_2015_base XLS 03 March 2017 Not available
housing_led_interim_2015_base XLS 03 March 2017 Not available
short_term_2015_base_components ZIP 03 March 2017 Not available
short_term_trend_interim_2015_base XLS 03 March 2017 Not available

Additional information

View additional metadata
Added to data.gov.uk
2017-03-06
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e804dcd8-4ad4-403a-9a6b-ed22faf0bf81
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