Housing-led population projections

Published by:
Greater London Authority
Last updated:
17 August 2024
Topic:
Not added
Licence:
None

Summary

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant.

Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service.

The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions.

All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment.

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here.

Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data).

Documentation page

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Data links

Link to the data Format File added Data preview
2022-based projection results.html HTML 17 August 2024 Not available
2022-based 15-year migration High Fertility Identified Capacity XLSX 10 August 2024 Not available
2022-based 10-year migration Central Fertility Identified Capacity XLSX 10 August 2024 Not available
2022-based 5-year migration Low Fertility Identified Capacity XLSX 10 August 2024 Not available
2021-based Interim Projections Results HTML 01 February 2023 Not available

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