Correlation of economic data and party of government

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Lauren Milligan.10 May 2012.CHRISTY TURLINGTON BURNS won't be celebrating Mother's Day this Sunday with the rest of the US, as a mark of respect and a statement of solidarity to mothers all over the world less fortunate than herself. The supermodel conceived the initiative - called No Mother's Day - with her charity Every Mother Counts to highlight the plight of mothers who have lost their lives unnecessarily."No Mother's Day is a social issue campaign - unveiled at a time when people are thinking about their mums the most - to help raise awareness about a global tragedy that takes the lives of 358,000 mothers every year," Torrington Burns told us today. "The cornerstone of the campaign is a social issue film that features mums encouraging other mums to join in solidarity by disappearing on May 13, US Mother's Day. No emails, no phone calls, no social media - because we believe that sometimes 'our silence can speak the loudest for all mothers'. We know that this act of solidarity alone won't save lives, but it will raise awareness and that's the first step in making a change."

correlation is not causation. areas with poorer folk [relatively or absolutely] are likely to vote for political parties favouring support for the poor/redistribution of income. besides, people do already vote based on their perceptions of parties' economic competence over previous periods. both the major parties have presided over periods of rising unemployment and recessions, which are sometimes tho not always due to worl events such as oil price shocks. At a national level the data is readily available; at a local level the economic data is available for unemployment and as part of the indices of deprivation, but simply correlating will be misleading because there are national factors at work - for example the increased poverty and unemployment in areas basec on manufacturing from the 1970s.

the idea that an app with simple correlations of the sort suggested would be a useful tool without the accompanying history and political context, is foolish and misinformed.

It's a nice idea but one problem is that it wouldn't show time lags. Thatcher made economic choices which benefit us today and (contrary to popular belief) Labour has introduced policies that will benefit whoever is in office next.

All this would do is muddy the water. Investment (especially in education) can take 10+ years to be shown in economic data.

Also no party couldn't have actually avoided recession so the figures would reflect negatively on a party which has only performed as well as the others would have.